Thursday, February 21, 2008

Oscar Predictions

Well boys and girls, it’s that time of the year again. And since I’ve joined the world of blogging, I thought I’d share my picks. I usually try to see as many Oscar nominated pics as possible in order to make a well-informed decision, but this year it just didn’t happen. The whole moving at the last minute thing put a kink in my plans, plus I’m honestly just not too excited about some of the nominated films. But I did get a chance to see a few, and, of course, I have an opinion! Most magazines give their predictions in a “Who Will win” and a “Who Should Win” format. I’m going to borrow that and tweak it a bit with a “Who Will Win” and a “Who I’d Pick,” which reflects who I’d caste my vote for if I was lucky enough to be a member of the Academy. So, without further ado, my picks for the big awards!

Supporting Actor
Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford)
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson’s War)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)
Who Will Win: Javier Bardem. He’s been sweeping the awards, and I don’t see this being any exception. If anyone can pull the upset, it’ll be Casey Affleck. But look for Javier to start the ball rolling on a No Country for Old Men kinda night.
Who I’d Pick: Casey Affleck. I didn’t see No Country, so I can’t give a valid assessment of Javier’s performance. All I know is I’m still amazed at Casey’s performance in The Assassination of Jesse James. Never before have I so sympathized with a character that I’ve so hated at the same time.

Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Ruby Dee (American Gangster)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)
Who Will Win: This is one category that is wide open. I could see any of these women walking away with an Oscar. I see it ultimately as a battle between Ruby Dee (the sentimental favorite) and Amy Ryan (the best performance of the phenomenal five). I’m hearing that Cate is amazing in I’m Not There, but I think Amy has the edge over her because Cate’s already been rewarded once and the Academy likes to spread the love.
Who I’d Pick: Amy Ryan. I’m not certain why no one saw Gone Baby Gone. It’s a great film and Amy knocked it out of the park.

Actor
George Clooney (Michael Clayton)
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
Viggo Mortenson (Eastern Promises)
Who Will Win: This is the easiest pick of the night - Daniel Day-Lewis. He’s a great actor and Hollywood loves him. I didn’t see There Will Be Blood, but I could sense the power of his performance from the trailer. Look for him to mention Heath Ledger in his acceptance speech. He’s been doing a lot of that lately.
Who I’d Pick: This is the rare category where I haven’t seen a single performance, so I’m picking based on the trailers. Despite my obsession with George and my brief elevator encounter with Viggo, I’m going to go with Daniel Day-Lewis for the reasons discussed above.

Actress
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)
Who Will Win: Julie Christie. Every actress in this category has a strong case for winning, but Julie has momentum and I see her finishing awards season up with the Oscar. But look out for Marion Cotillard to pull off what could be the only upset of the night.
Who I’d Pick: Until recently, I would’ve picked Ellen Page. But I just saw La Vie en Rose and was blown away by Marion Cotillard. Away from Her just arrived in the mail and is scheduled for a Saturday viewing, and I’ll let you know if I change my mind.
Honorable Mention: Cate Blanchett got nominated for this performance because of one scene. “I, too, can command the wind, sir! I have a hurricane inside me that will strip Spain bare if you dare to try me!” It was the single greatest delivery of a line that I have ever seen on film. If you haven’t seen it, at the very least you should google the trailer and watch it. It gives me chills every time.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
Christopher Hampton (Atonement)
Sarah Polley (Away from Her)
Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Who Will Win: The Coen Bros. will add another Screenplay award to their stash.
Who I’d Pick: This is hard because I have only seen Atonement. I would likely pick the Coen Bros. myself though I hear Sarah Polley’s script is amazing and might be inclined to vote for her after viewing the film. I could actually see this as being the upset of upsets. Hollywood loves actors who try their hand at writing. I wouldn’t be terribly shocked if Academy members voted No Country for the big two (pic and directing) and rewarded Sarah for her writing/directing turn in this category.
Fun Fact: Do any of you remember the Ramona books? If you recall, there was a short series of Ramona videos made back in the late ‘80s starring none other than Sarah Polley as Ramona Quimby.

Writing (Original Screenplay)
Diablo Cody (Juno)
Nancy Oliver (Lars and the Real Girl)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Brad Bird (Ratatouille)
Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Who Will Win: Diablo Cody. This will likely be the only award Juno picks up, and it is well deserved.
Who I’d Pick: Diablo Cody because it was the best screenplay of the year, original or adapted.

Director
Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
Jason Reitman (Juno)
Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton)
Joel & Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men)
Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)
Who Will Win: The Coen Bros. will take home their first Directing Oscar.
Who I’d Pick: The Coen Bros or Paul Thomas Anderson. I’m definitely not a fan of their movies, but they’ve got talent. Just because it’s not my cup of tea doesn’t mean I can’t recognize skill.

Picture
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Who Will Win: No Country for Old Men. It’s not much of a contest. No Country will take home the night’s big prize. If anyone pulls an upset, it’ll be Juno. And that may not be as far-fetched as you might think. I could definitely see a scenario where No Country and There Will Be Blood cancel each other out making way for Juno to emerge victorious.
Who I’d Pick: Juno. This was my favorite movie of the year. The only other film I saw was Atonement. No Country and There Will Be Blood just are not movies that I like, so there’s no point in me paying $12 to go see each of them. I can appreciate the skill and art of those films, but I’m not going to sit and watch them. Atonement was a beautiful, epic film a la Titanic, but it just didn’t pack the punch that Juno did for me. Juno was the compelling, original, out-of-the-blue film that had something to say and said it perfectly.

Update: I've now also seen Michael Clayton. It was a really great film and George Clooney and Tom Wilkinson gave awesome performances, but it didn't change any of my picks.

2 comments:

Matt and Jolee said...

Whew! Are your hands hurting from typing? I can't comment because I have seen none of them. Zilch. Zero.... but, I'll trust you on the choices.

The Traxsons said...

Yeah, I'm with Jolee - haven't seen any of them. Now, if you want to talk Cars or Finding Nemo I can participate :)